The Exchange Watch · AI-produced · UNPROVEN

Markets — What the Money Says

Prices read Tue Nov 10, 2026 · 12:36 PM ET

Two boards where crowds put money behind a number — the daily high temperature and the games on our sheet — read beside the lab’s own numbers, with the gaps stated plainly. This page is a watch, not a pick sheet: the prices here are never our picks, and nothing on it is betting advice.

Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, read at the stated time. We do not trade there. Read-only market data, captured once each morning and graded after the fact.

Weather Markets — the Daily High

Kalshi sells contracts on the official daily high temperature in each of these cities. The price of a bracket reads as the market’s probability for it. Beside it sits our own read: the share of pooled forecast runs — the ensemble the Weather Almanac counts, run by run — that land in the same bracket, read at the station the contract settles on.

New York City

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at New York City (Central Park) (CLINYC), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHNY.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHNY-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 61° to 62° at 82¢; our runs put 13% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHNY-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 61° to 62° at 62¢; our runs put 10% there.

Boston

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Boston (Logan Intl) (CLIBOS), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTBOS.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTBOS-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 56° to 57° at 84¢; our runs put 11% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTBOS-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 56° to 57° at 56¢; our runs put 12% there.

Chicago

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (Midway) (CLIMDW), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHCHI.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHCHI-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 64° to 65° at 63¢; our runs put 0% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHCHI-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 57° to 58° at 30¢; our runs put 4% there.

Atlanta

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Atlanta (Hartsfield-Jackson) (CLIATL), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTATL.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTATL-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 73° to 74° at 76¢; our runs put 0% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTATL-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 71° to 72° at 50¢; our runs put 6% there.

Miami

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Miami (Intl) (CLIMIA), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHMIA.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHMIA-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 84° to 85° at 63¢; our runs put 0% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHMIA-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 85° to 86° at 70¢; our runs put 0% there.

Minneapolis

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Minneapolis–St Paul (Intl) (CLIMSP), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTMIN.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTMIN-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 61° or above at 70¢; our runs put 0% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTMIN-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 56° or above at 42¢; our runs put 0% there.

Dallas

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Dallas–Fort Worth (Intl) (CLIDFW), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTDAL.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 76° to 77° at 58¢; our runs put 4% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTDAL-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 77° or below at 2¢; our runs put 57% there.

Houston

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Houston (Hobby) (CLIHOU), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTHOU.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTHOU-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 75° to 76° at 60¢; our runs put 1% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTHOU-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 75° or below at 80¢; our runs put 33% there.

Austin

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Austin (Bergstrom) (CLIAUS), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHAUS.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHAUS-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 70° to 71° at 45¢; our runs put 16% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHAUS-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 75° to 76° at 29¢; our runs put 11% there.

Denver

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Denver (Intl) (CLIDEN), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHDEN.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHDEN-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 69° to 70° at 38¢; our runs put 1% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHDEN-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 65° to 66° at 55¢; our runs put 24% there.

Phoenix

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Phoenix (Sky Harbor) (CLIPHX), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTPHX.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTPHX-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 83° to 84° at 83¢; our runs put 0% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTPHX-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 83° to 84° at 56¢; our runs put 6% there.

Las Vegas

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Las Vegas (Harry Reid Intl) (CLILAS), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTLV.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTLV-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 76° to 77° at 46¢; our runs put 0% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTLV-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 76° to 77° at 70¢; our runs put 0% there.

Los Angeles

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Los Angeles (Intl) (CLILAX), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHLAX.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHLAX-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 84° to 85° at 68¢; our runs put 0% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHLAX-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 87° to 88° at 2¢; our runs put 39% there.

Seattle

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Seattle (Sea-Tac) (CLISEA), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHTSEA.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHTSEA-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 58° to 59° at 46¢; our runs put 2% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHTSEA-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 64° to 65° at 39¢; our runs put 16% there.

Philadelphia

Settles on: the maximum temperature recorded at Philadelphia (Intl) (CLIPHL), according to The Weather Company — Kalshi series KXHIGHPHIL.

Tuesday, November 10 · KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV10 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 62° to 63° at 0¢; our runs put 72% there.

Wednesday, November 11 · KXHIGHPHIL-26NOV11 · 82 pooled runs

Widest gap: the market prices 64° to 65° at 56¢; our runs put 4% there.

Sports Prediction Watch

For each NFL and NBA game the lab has filed a pick on, here is what the prediction markets charge for a win — read as a win probability — beside our model’s own win probability for the side we filed. A game prints only when it matches a venue listing on both teams and the date with certainty.

Venue columns price our filed side. Our win chance: the filed model margin read through a normal curve whose spread is measured on the lab’s own settled games in that league (see the method note below).

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Polymarket futures market, read at this capture. Our rank is the lab’s published power rating.

NBA: 2027 Champion

Polymarket futures market, read at this capture. Our rank is the lab’s published power rating.

How to read this page

Our sports win chance comes from the margin our filed model already computes, read through a normal curve. NBA: spread 18.8 points, measured on 8 settled lab games; NFL: spread 9.8 points, measured on 15 settled lab games. Our weather read counts pooled ensemble runs per bracket at the settlement station. Every capture is kept point-in-time in the watch ledger and graded against the official record; reads are reported at 30 and 100 settled lines.