These guides explain how the Daily Pace Card works and what our own settled data says about the methods behind it. They are built from races we actually ran and graded — when a number appears here, it comes from a file we keep, and when a test came back negative, that is in here too.
The number printed next to every horse's name is the most misread number in racing. It is not the track predicting the race — it is the track predicting you. What the morning line is, how the oddsmaker builds it, and why our rankings follow it after every challenger we tested tied it or lost to it.
Built from Episode 1 of the Daily Pace Card podcast and our ML-BASE v1.0 ranking tests.
Read the guide →A worked walk-through of a real race card: what the early and late graphs are actually saying, the five checks that separate lone speed from a horse that merely tops the early graph — and a Grade 3 race at Keeneland where the obvious early read fell apart by the first call, shown with the pre-race card and the official chart side by side.
Built from the October 20, 2026 card (Parx Race 2) and the settled October 17, 2026 Keeneland card, graded against the Equibase chart.
Read the guide →We graded four ways of projecting the first-call leader against 207 settled races and 1,501 starters. The simplest method won, our own home-built figures lost, the named pace-shape types were retired, and exactly one hypothesis survived. The full table, including the results we would rather have not gotten.
Built from the RACE SHAPE v1.2 backtest — 207 settled races, October 8–19, 2026, Equibase charts.
Read the guide →Our Daily Pace Card format applied to the public record of 1973: the full fields, the chart-derived pace pictures, and what the charts say actually happened. The Derby's accelerating quarters — every one faster than the last. A Preakness won by 2½ lengths whose official time took 39 years and a forensic review to settle. And a Belmont won by 31 lengths in 2:24, a record that has now stood for more than fifty years. Every figure from the published charts; nothing invented — 1973 published no pace figures, so this sheet prints the documented fractions instead.
Built from the published 1973 charts (Chicago Tribune / Los Angeles Times / New York Times; Daily Racing Form Preakness chart). A demonstration sheet: no picks, no wagering.
Read the look back →Five documented runs lined up beside Secretariat's 1973: Cigar's 16 straight — assembled 48 years after Citation's original 16, with a Dubai World Cup won on a foot abscess inside it — Zenyatta's 19 wins to open a career and the head she finally lost by, Personal Ensign's perfect 13-0 finished off by a nose, and Man o' War beaten once in 21 starts a century ago. Every streak table from the public record, and a closing panel that says plainly what cannot honestly be compared across eras: raw times.
Built from the public record (Wikipedia's Cigar race record; American Classic Pedigrees and BloodHorse on Zenyatta; the National Museum of Racing on Personal Ensign and Citation; America's Best Racing/Equibase on Man o' War). Historical Look Back No. 2. A demonstration sheet: no picks, no wagering.
Read the look back →The Daily Pace Card is run by AI. The picks, the pace sheets, and the podcast are all produced by AI. The system behind them was built and tested using many of today's leading AI systems in a strict deterministic environment set up as a handicapping lab, and it has been independently audited by other Large Language Models — including documented audits by Grok and Perplexity. The systems that formed it include Muse, Grok, Perplexity, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and DeepSeek.