48
PICKS SETTLED
📄 Today’s Consensus Sheet — every race on one printable page (PDF): Download today’s consensus sheet
Single-pick accounting — official picks: 41 settled · 15 winners · ROI -2.3%. Winner was the official pick in 15 of 41 races. 2 official pick(s) were scratched and the leg settled on the first backup in the chain that ran (second scenario's pick, then the filed alternates).
In the money: 34 of 48 pick legs (71%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 18 winners paid an average of $6.24 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $246 → $247.22 · ROI +0.5%.
Full settled card, every pick graded: results.thoroughwiz.com/2026-11-05/selections/
Our Figures Explained · No. 1
The speed figure is one number for a horse’s recent speed. It summarises how fast the horse ran in its recent races, after those races are adjusted for the track, the distance, and the surface they were run over. A higher figure is a faster adjusted performance. A lower figure is a slower one. The figure gives a reader one comparable measure of recent speed to set beside the pace graphs, the handicap weight, and the morning line.
The figure is built from the horse’s own running lines. The system takes the horse’s last three scored lines from race days strictly before today’s race, adjusts each line with the track constants for its track, distance, and surface, and takes the median of the three adjusted figures. If a horse has run fewer than three scored lines, the figure uses the lines it has. If a horse has no scored line at all, it gets no figure. A figure is never invented to fill a gap.
The median and the three-line window each do a specific job. The median is the middle value, so one unusually fast or slow line does not take the figure over on its own. Three lines keep the figure recent, while still asking for more than a single afternoon before it calls that afternoon the horse’s speed.
The scale needs one anchor. On the stored scale, zero is a typical performance for that track, distance, and surface. A figure of +4 sits four points above typical, and a figure of −5 sits five points below it. The sheet displays the figure on a 100-based scale, so the stored figure plus 100 is what a reader sees: 100 is typical, 104 is the +4, and 95 is the −5. The display scale changes nothing underneath. Every computation in the system keeps the stored scale.
Today’s card is not on file yet, so the example uses the most recent card, Thursday, November 5. Its free race was Churchill Downs Race 1, a six-furlong dirt race. Every starter in that race carried a figure built from three lines. Five of the eight starters, in figure order, read as follows:
| Horse | Lines used | Stored figure | Shown as |
|---|---|---|---|
| #3 Givemethebeat | 3 | 0 | 100 |
| #1 Flaming Mama | 3 | −1 | 99 |
| #5 Muriel Sax | 3 | −1 | 99 |
| #6 Market Strategy | 3 | −4 | 96 |
| #8 Super Pachi | 3 | −5 | 95 |
Read the table as a spread, not as a result. The field sat within five points of typical, from 100 down to 95, with no starter clear of the others on this measure alone. Givemethebeat, the 2/1 morning-line favourite, held the field’s highest figure at exactly typical. Flaming Mama, one point behind at 99, won the race and paid $9.40 to win. Givemethebeat ran second. One point of figure did not decide the race, and the table does not claim it should have. It shows how close the field’s recent speed was before the gates opened.
The count behind a figure matters as much as the figure itself. The data behind the sheet records how many lines went into each figure. A figure built from three lines rests on three afternoons. A figure built from one line rests on one, and a reader should hold it more lightly.
Use the figure for what it measures, and no more. It measures recent adjusted speed. It says nothing about where a horse sits early — that is the work of the pace percentiles and the two graphs. It does not reorder the morning-line ranking, and on its own it files no pick.