52
PICKS SETTLED
📄 Today’s Consensus Sheet — every race on one printable page (PDF): Download today’s consensus sheet
Single-pick accounting — official picks: 46 settled · 12 winners · ROI -35.6%. Winner was the official pick in 12 of 46 races. 1 official pick(s) were scratched and the leg settled on the first backup in the chain that ran (second scenario's pick, then the filed alternates).
In the money: 29 of 52 pick legs (56%) finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
The 12 winners paid an average of $4.94 on a $2 win ticket.
Across the board: $2 win-place-show on every pick — $276 → $205.00 · ROI -25.7%.
Full settled card, every pick graded: results.thoroughwiz.com/2026-11-06/selections/
Handicapping With the Figures · No. 1
Yesterday’s highest-priced winner on the filed card ran at Remington Park, in Race 8, a six-and-a-half-furlong dirt race with nine starters. The winner was #5 Royalamerican, an 8/1 shot on the morning line who went off at 34.6/1 and paid $71.20 on a $2 win ticket. This post grades the sheet on that race: where the winner sat on each figure, and which figure, if any, pointed at him.
The filed pick was #3 Mister Omaha, the 2/1 morning-line favorite. The race filed one pick instead of a pair: the second scenario, the pace stays honest, fell under the likelihood floor, so the filed scenario stood alone — if the pace collapses, at 60%. Mister Omaha also led the consensus with 17 points. He went off at 2/5 and did not finish in the first three. #7 Classy Empire ran second and #1 Nucleus ran third. Their figures as filed:
| Horse | Speed, shown | Weight | Early | Late |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 Royalamerican (won) | 100 | 124 lb | 22 | 25 |
| #3 Mister Omaha (filed pick) | 101 | 124 lb | 69 | 86 |
| #6 Connors Outlaw | 101 | 125 lb | 86 | 46 |
| #9 Breakable Code | 101 | 133 lb | 80 | 67 |
| #1 Nucleus | 101 | 124 lb | 71 | 38 |
On speed, the field barely separated. Six of the nine starters held the field’s top stored figure, +1, shown as 101. Royalamerican held 0, shown as 100, tied with one other horse and one point behind the six leaders. Only #2 I Am What I Am, at 99 shown, sat lower. Every figure in the race rested on three lines. A one-point gap across nine horses is not a separation the speed figure can decide a race with, and it did not: the winner sat in the figure’s bottom group.
The pace percentiles ranked him lower still. His early percentile was 22, eighth of nine. His late percentile was 25, also eighth of nine. His TURN row read 25, seventh of nine. Neither graph pointed at him. His handicap weight was 124 lb, level with Mister Omaha and Nucleus, in a field that ran from 118 lb to 133 lb. His draw index from post 5 was 1.058, no draw edge — a filing edge starts at 1.15. The strong draw cell in the race belonged to the rail: Nucleus held an index of 1.511 and ran third.
The consensus scored the morning-line top four: Mister Omaha, Nucleus, Breakable Code, and Connors Outlaw. Royalamerican, at 8/1, sat outside that four and held no consensus points. Of the scored four, only Nucleus finished in the first three. The second-place finisher, Classy Empire, sat outside the four as well.
The grade is plain: no figure saw this winner. Speed had him in a pack separated by two points from top to bottom. Pace had him eighth of nine at both ends of the race. Weight had him level with the favorite. The draw gave him nothing. The race sits in the settled record at the price it paid, and the sheet’s miss is part of that record.
The portable point is narrow, and it is about reading, not about a new angle. When a field’s speed figures span two points, the speed figure has not separated the field. A low pace rank is a fact about a horse’s recent lines. It is not proof the horse cannot win. Yesterday at Remington Park, the horse ranked eighth of nine early and eighth of nine late won at 34.6/1.