Supplement · Sports — NFL
Before You Play the NFL — Week 10, 2026
Supplemental information, descriptive only. This report counts what has happened; it makes no prediction and claims no edge. The lab's picks are UNPROVEN. All picks, sheets and pages on this site are AI-produced.
As of: Saturday, November 7, 2026.
Coverage: 122 completed 2026 regular-season games with both a final score and a spread (Weeks 1–8, plus the Thursday November 5 game) · history splits from 1,615 games, 2020–2025 · Week 10 slate: 15 games, November 5–9.
At −110, a spread bet must cover 52.38% of decided bets to break even; that rate is printed beside every cover rate below. Any single cell above it is a looked-for split — a slice chosen after the fact from a small sample — not an edge. An ATS record is graded at the closing spread in the lab's game file; cover % excludes pushes. Return per $2 grades every bet at a flat −110 (a win returns $3.82, stake included; a push returns $2.00), so $2.00 per $2 is break-even. Each 2026 team has played only 7–9 games; every 2026 rate here is a small sample.
Part A — The Week 10 slate
Lines are the lab's filed anchor lines (DraftKings, captured November 5). Rest is days since each team's previous game (away / home). No wind forecast is on file for this slate, so no wind line is printed — the lab prints a wind read only when a forecast is on file.
| Game | Filed line | Rest (away / home) | Roof |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 5 — Jacksonville Jaguars 33, Baltimore Ravens 10 (final) | Jacksonville −10 (road favorite) | 4 / 4 | Outdoors |
| Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons | Cincinnati −3 | 7 / 7 | |
| Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers | Denver −2.5 | 7 / 10 | Outdoors |
| Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints | New Orleans −3 | 7 / 14 | Dome |
| Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts | Dallas −5.5 | 7 / 7 | |
| Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins | Detroit −7 | 7 / 7 | Outdoors |
| New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City −10 | 7 / 7 | Outdoors |
| Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders | Los Angeles −4.5 | 7 / 7 | Outdoors |
| New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants −3.5 | 14 / 7 | Outdoors |
| Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers | Houston −6 | 14 / 7 | Dome |
| Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco −10 | 7 / 14 | Outdoors |
| Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots | New England −3 | 10 / 7 | Outdoors |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks | Seattle −8.5 | 7 / 6 | Outdoors |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears | Chicago −6 | 7 / 6 | Outdoors |
| Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings (Mon) | Buffalo −3 | 8 / 8 | Dome |
Rest edges on the slate: New Orleans (14 days) hosts Cleveland (7); the New York Giants (14) visit Philadelphia (7); Houston (14) visits the Los Angeles Chargers (7); San Francisco (14) hosts Las Vegas (7); Carolina (10) hosts Denver (7); Green Bay (10) visits New England (7). Thursday's game is final: Jacksonville, a 10-point road favorite, won 33–10 at Baltimore and covered.
Part B — 2026 season-to-date: team ATS tables (122 games)
All 32 teams, sorted by return per $2. Splits are cover records (W-L; pushes ride in the overall column).
| Team | ATS | Cover % | Per $2 | Home | Road | As favorite | As underdog |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 6-2 | 75.0% | $2.86 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 4-2 | 2-0 |
| Denver Broncos | 6-2 | 75.0% | $2.86 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 5-0 | 1-2 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6-2 | 75.0% | $2.86 | 3-1 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 5-2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 75.0% | $2.86 | 4-0 | 2-2 | 5-1 | 1-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 5-2 | 71.4% | $2.73 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 1-0 |
| New York Giants | 5-2 | 71.4% | $2.73 | 3-1 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 4-2 |
| Cleveland Browns | 5-3 | 62.5% | $2.39 | 3-0 | 2-3 | 1-0 | 4-3 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-3 | 62.5% | $2.39 | 3-2 | 2-1 | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4-3 | 57.1% | $2.18 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4-3 | 57.1% | $2.18 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 2-0 |
| Washington Commanders | 4-3 | 57.1% | $2.18 | 2-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4-3-1 | 57.1% | $2.16 | 3-1 | 1-2-1 | 1-2-1 | 3-1 |
| New York Jets | 4-3-1 | 57.1% | $2.16 | 2-2 | 2-1-1 | 1-2 | 3-1-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | $1.92 | 1-2 | 2-1-1 | 2-3-1 | 1-0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | $1.92 | 1-1-1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-3-1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4-4 | 50.0% | $1.91 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-4 | 50.0% | $1.91 | 1-2 | 3-2 | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4-4 | 50.0% | $1.91 | 2-3 | 2-1 | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 4-4 | 50.0% | $1.91 | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-4-1 | 42.9% | $1.68 | 1-2-1 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 1-0-1 |
| New England Patriots | 3-4-1 | 42.9% | $1.68 | 2-1 | 1-3-1 | 2-2 | 1-2-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-4-1 | 42.9% | $1.68 | 1-3-1 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-3-1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-4 | 42.9% | $1.64 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3-4 | 42.9% | $1.64 | 2-1 | 1-3 | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| New Orleans Saints | 3-4 | 42.9% | $1.64 | 0-4 | 3-0 | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2-4-2 | 33.3% | $1.45 | 1-2-2 | 1-2 | 2-4-2 | 0-0 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 3-5 | 37.5% | $1.43 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 |
| Detroit Lions | 2-4-1 | 33.3% | $1.38 | 1-2-1 | 1-2 | 2-3-1 | 0-1 |
| Houston Texans | 2-5 | 28.6% | $1.09 | 0-4 | 2-1 | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2-6-1 | 25.0% | $1.07 | 0-4 | 2-2-1 | 1-3-1 | 1-3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 1-7 | 12.5% | $0.48 | 0-4 | 1-3 | 0-3 | 1-4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6-1 | 0.0% | $0.29 | 0-3 | 0-3-1 | 0-2 | 0-4-1 |
Leaders: Chicago Bears 6-2 (75.0%, $2.86 per $2); Denver Broncos 6-2 (75.0%, $2.86 per $2); Las Vegas Raiders 6-2 (75.0%, $2.86 per $2); Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2 (75.0%, $2.86 per $2). Four teams sit at 6-2 — in a 122-game sample that is the top of a distribution, not a rate to project.
Trailers: Baltimore Ravens 2-6-1 (25.0%, $1.07 per $2); Philadelphia Eagles 1-7 (12.5%, $0.48 per $2); Los Angeles Chargers 0-6-1 (0.0%, $0.29 per $2). The Los Angeles Chargers are the league's only winless team against the spread (0-6-1).
Home/road split, league-wide: home teams have covered 44.8% of decided bets (52-64-6); road teams 55.2% (64-52-6). The 2020–25 history puts the same split at 49.6% / 50.4% (Part C) — the 2026 gap is the kind of split a short season produces, and the six-year record does not support it.
Part C — Market lines
2026 season-to-date (122 games)
| Line | Bets | W-L-P | Cover % | Break-even | Per $2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites, all | 122 | 57-59-6 | 49.1% | 52.38% | $1.88 |
| Favorites by band: 0–2.5 | 29 | 16-13 | 55.2% | 52.38% | $2.11 |
| Favorites by band: 3–6.5 | 64 | 34-27-3 | 55.7% | 52.38% | $2.12 |
| Favorites by band: 7–9.5 | 20 | 3-14-3 | 17.6% | 52.38% | $0.87 |
| Favorites by band: 10+ | 9 | 4-5 | 44.4% | 52.38% | $1.70 |
| Home favorites | 76 | 33-40-3 | 45.2% | 52.38% | $1.74 |
| Road favorites | 46 | 24-19-3 | 55.8% | 52.38% | $2.12 |
| Double-digit favorites (10+) | 9 | 4-5 | 44.4% | 52.38% | $1.70 |
| Double-digit underdogs (10+) | 9 | 5-4 | 55.6% | 52.38% | $2.12 |
| Favorites in divisional games | 40 | 16-24 | 40.0% | 52.38% | $1.53 |
| Favorites in non-divisional games | 82 | 41-35-6 | 53.9% | 52.38% | $2.06 |
Two 2026 cells sit above break-even — favorites of 0–2.5 (55.2%, 29 bets) and 3–6.5 (55.7%, 64 bets) — and road favorites at 55.8% (46 bets). All three are looked-for splits: the six-year history below puts every one of those cells at 49.9% or lower. The mirror cell, favorites of 7–9.5, is 3-14-3 (17.6%) on 20 bets this season against 45.7% in the history — the same warning in the other direction. Favorites in divisional games have covered 40.0% (16-24) this season; the history says 46.2%.
History, 2020–2025 (1,615 games)
| Line | Bets | W-L-P | Cover % | Break-even | Per $2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites, all | 1615 | 768-814-33 | 48.5% | 52.38% | $1.86 |
| Favorites by band: 0–2.5 | 378 | 188-189-1 | 49.9% | 52.38% | $1.90 |
| Favorites by band: 3–6.5 | 770 | 361-386-23 | 48.3% | 52.38% | $1.85 |
| Favorites by band: 7–9.5 | 269 | 122-145-2 | 45.7% | 52.38% | $1.75 |
| Favorites by band: 10+ | 198 | 97-94-7 | 50.8% | 52.38% | $1.94 |
| Home favorites | 963 | 457-486-20 | 48.5% | 52.38% | $1.85 |
| Road favorites | 652 | 311-328-13 | 48.7% | 52.38% | $1.86 |
| Double-digit favorites (10+) | 198 | 97-94-7 | 50.8% | 52.38% | $1.94 |
| Double-digit underdogs (10+) | 198 | 94-97-7 | 49.2% | 52.38% | $1.88 |
| Favorites in divisional games | 576 | 262-305-9 | 46.2% | 52.38% | $1.77 |
| Favorites in non-divisional games | 1039 | 506-509-24 | 49.9% | 52.38% | $1.91 |
The six-year record is the report's anchor: no market cell in 1,615 games clears 52.38%. Favorites overall cover 48.5%; the best band, 10+, covers 50.8%. This is why the report prints history beside the season — a hot cell in 122 games is a description of the last nine weeks, not a property of the market.
Part D — 0-for spots (2026, 4+ bets)
- Baltimore Ravens at home: 0-4 (4 bets)
- Houston Texans at home: 0-4 (4 bets)
- Los Angeles Chargers as road underdog: 0-3-1 (4 bets)
- Los Angeles Chargers as underdog: 0-4-1 (5 bets)
- New Orleans Saints at home: 0-4 (4 bets)
- Philadelphia Eagles at home: 0-4 (4 bets)
Four teams are winless against the spread at home (Baltimore, Houston, New Orleans, Philadelphia — each 0-4). These are 4-bet samples in a 7–9-game season; the report prints them because the format prints its 0-for lists, with the sample size attached.
Part E — Our filed record
The sports lab's NFL ledger holds no settled games yet. Its first filings are this week's: 42 picks filed November 5, 2026 — a spread, a total and a moneyline pick on each of 14 Week 10 games (the Thursday game began before the filing time and carries no pick). The picks are labeled UNPROVEN; no edge is claimed, and a 14-game first sample will not change that label either way. Under the lab's current rule (v1.2), new filings are spread picks only, plus the outdoor wind under where a forecast qualifies it; the totals and moneyline filings above stand as filed and settle as filed.
Coverage and validation
- Counted: 122 completed 2026 regular-season games — 121 from the lab's canonical game file (Weeks 1–8, September 9 – November 2) plus Thursday, November 5 (Jacksonville 33, Baltimore 10; score from the lab's ESPN finals cache, spread from the lab's schedule file: Jacksonville −10, confirmed by the moneylines on the same row). History: 1,615 regular-season games, 2020–2025, from the same file. Postseason games are excluded throughout.
- Spread convention, verified before grading: the game file's spread column is the away team's spread (negative = the road team is favored). Across the 1,615 history games with moneylines on file, the spread's favored side matches the moneyline's favored side in 1,607 (99.5%).
- Second pass: every table was recomputed from the source rows through an independent aggregation; all 32 team lines and every spot-checked band and split matched exactly.
- Score cross-check: 10 completed 2026 games drawn at random were checked against the lab's ESPN finals cache; all 10 scores matched.
- Not on file: no wind or weather forecast for the Week 10 slate exists in the lab's files, so Part A prints rest and roof only. Roof is printed only where the schedule file carries it (13 of 15 games).