Supplement · Racing

Churchill Downs — Per-Track Meet Report

Supplemental information, descriptive only. This report counts what has happened at this meet; it makes no prediction and claims no edge. All picks, sheets and pages on this site are AI-produced.

Date: Saturday, November 7, 2026

Track: Churchill Downs (CD), fall meet

Part A: today's bias, full card of Saturday, November 7, 2026

Part B: meet tables, October 25 – November 7, 2026 (all 8 cards)

Source: full-card Equibase charts only (never our filed subset)

Saturday conditions (from the charts): Clear, 55°. Dirt Fast, turf Firm, turf rail at 12 feet. Eight races on dirt, three on turf (R5, R6, R11). Meet dirt conditions varied by card: Nov 4 Sloppy (Sealed), Nov 5 Good, Nov 6–7 Fast; sloppy dirt counts as dirt in every split.

Part A — Today's bias: Saturday, November 7 (11 races)

Running style is our mechanical proxy, read off each winner's position at the chart's first call: E = led at the first call; E/P = 2nd or 3rd at the first call and within 2 lengths of the leader; P = 4th–6th at the first call, or within 6 lengths of the leader; S = everything else. First-call positions decode from the chart's beaten-length superscripts jointly per race (positions must form a complete 1-to-N assignment); the assignment was unique in all 11 races.

Winners' running styles

Early (E + E/P): 5 of 11 (45%). Several winners raced 4th–5th at the first call and won from just off the pace, which is why this tally sits below other reads that classify by running style rather than by the first call.

Wire-to-wire winners: 3 — R4, R8, R10.

Winner detail (first-call position and lengths behind the leader):

Winners by gate (post position)

Inside gates supplied 10 of the 11 winners.

Part B — Meet tables: October 25 – November 7 (79 races, 672 starters)

Return per $2 = total $2 win payoffs returned ÷ starters; $2.00 is break-even. ITM = finished 1st–3rd on official placings. Sprint = under 1 mile; route = 1 mile and up. Two races were settled through disqualifications, on the charts' own ruling lines: Nov 4 R7 (#12 Safety Off, 1st → 2nd; official winner #3 Comprehensive, $8.52) and Nov 6 R8 (#3 Encino, 2nd → 4th). Official finishes are used in every table.

Jockeys — 8+ mounts, by volume

Jockey splits that show a pattern (8+ samples in the split unless noted):

• Saez, Luis is a turf rider this meet: 5-for-17 on turf at $5.50, including 4-for-8 in turf sprints ($5.11) and a $5.86 return in turf routes (9 mounts, 1 win — one big price). On dirt he is 6-for-33 at $1.42. At 3-1 or higher overall: 7-for-35, $3.54.
• Torres, Jaime is the steadiest return on the grounds: $3.58 on dirt (5-for-19), $2.33 on turf (2-for-9), $3.17 in sprints, $3.19 in routes, $4.14 in dirt sprints (4-for-13). No weak cell.
• Corrales, Gerardo's $7.45 is one horse: both wins came on Oct 29 — Nessy, a 48-1 turf-sprint winner who paid $98.88, and Quentin B, a dirt-sprint winner who paid $5.40. The $98.88 is $98.88 of his $104.30 total return. Treat the headline as a concentration artifact, not a meet-long edge.
• Ortiz, Jr., Yomar wins routes and short prices: 5-for-9 in routes ($4.44), 6-for-9 under 3-1 ($3.97), 7-for-19 on dirt ($2.43).
• Asmussen, Keith: 4-for-24 overall at $3.04 (11 ITM), nearly all of it for his father's barn (see combos); 2-for-13 in dirt sprints ($3.60).
• The two busiest riders returned under $1.00. Gaffalione: $0.96 on 55 mounts — 7-for-37 on dirt ($0.98), 1-for-18 on turf ($0.90), 0-for-9 in turf routes, 2-for-32 at 3-1 or higher ($0.81); his favorites went 5-for-15 ($1.35). Jose Ortiz: $0.93 on 47 mounts — winless in routes all meet (0-for-22, 10 ITM) against 5-for-25 in sprints ($1.75), including 2-for-9 in turf sprints ($2.01).

Trainers — 8+ starters, by volume

Trainer splits that show a pattern:

• Cox, Brad owns the short prices: 7-for-8 with favorites ($4.07) and 8-for-9 under 3-1 ($4.43), with even returns on dirt ($2.76) and turf ($2.48). At 3-1 or higher he drops to 2-for-14 ($1.55).
• Sharp, Joe is the mirror image: 7-for-13 at 3-1 or higher ($3.02), 0-for-9 under 3-1 (5 ITM), 7-for-17 on dirt ($2.31), 0-for-5 on turf (4 ITM).
• Asmussen, Steven pairs the meet's largest barn with a $2.60 return: 4-for-20 in sprints ($3.10), 3-for-19 in dirt sprints ($3.12); his son Keith rides most of the barn (below).
• Lynch, Brian's $6.69 is priced horses, small barn: 3-for-10 at 3-1 or higher ($7.36), 2-for-6 on turf ($10.85), 2-for-5 in routes ($12.25) — 11 starters total, so read it as a hot small barn, not a meet rate.
• Small-sample note (under 8 starters, shown for shape only): Calhoun, W. 3-for-6, $5.63; Harty, Eoin 2-for-5, $4.80.

Top jockey/trainer combos (4+ starts together)

(Saez/Cox is a 4-start sample — shown because it is the meet's best return at the 4-start floor.)

0-for lists (8+ mounts/starters)

Jockeys: Sheehy, Danny 0-for-17 (2 ITM) · Fernandez, Miguel 0-for-17 (3 ITM) · Machado, Luan 0-for-15 (2 ITM) · Gutierrez, Mario 0-for-14 (4 ITM) · Grisales Rave, Danilo 0-for-11 (0 ITM) · Beschizza, Adam 0-for-10 (1 ITM) · Pauly, Summer 0-for-8 (1 ITM).

Trainers: Maker, Michael 0-for-14 (5 ITM) · Hartman, Chris 0-for-13 (5 ITM) · Danner, Kelsey 0-for-11 (3 ITM) · Moquett, Ron 0-for-10 (1 ITM) · Walsh, Brendan 0-for-9 (2 ITM) · Garcia, Genaro 0-for-9 (2 ITM) · Morse, Randy 0-for-9 (4 ITM) · LaRose, Kinnon 0-for-8 (5 ITM) · Ennis, John 0-for-8 (2 ITM).

Near-0-fors (1 win, 15+ mounts/starters): Morales, Edgar 1-for-34 (10 ITM) · Torres, Cristian 1-for-28 (14 ITM — half his mounts hit the board without winning) · Esquivel, Emmanuel 1-for-19 (7 ITM) · McPeek, Kenneth (trainer) 1-for-15 (8 ITM).

Meet pricing lines (79 races)

• Favorites: won 27 of 79 (34.2%); on the board in 56 (70.9%).
• Top-two betting choices: won 45 of 79 (57.0%).
• Winners from the 6th betting choice or longer: 4.
• Horses at final odds of 10-1 or higher: 5-for-305, 46 in the money.
• Favorites by cell: dirt routes 12 of 22 won ($2.77 returned per race) · all routes 14 of 32 ($2.29) · dirt sprints 11 of 37 ($1.53) · turf routes 2 of 10 ($1.23) · turf sprints 2 of 10 ($0.76). The chalk held up in dirt routes and nowhere else.

Coverage and validation

• Cards held: 8 of 8. Churchill Downs raced Oct 25, Oct 28, Oct 29, Nov 1, Nov 4, Nov 5, Nov 6, and Nov 7 in the meet window. The four October/November 1 charts were already on disk in the lab's chart archive; they were copied into the pipeline data folders (`data/<date>/equibase_charts/`) under the standard chart names for this run. No live-browser pull was needed, and no chart is missing.
• Counted: 79 races, 672 starters, 672 trainer attributions. Races excluded from any table: 0.
• Parse validation, all 79 races, zero problems: the main-table starter count and program set match the chart's also-ran preview in every race; every starter's finish token decodes to its official finish position; the chart's WPS table order matches the parsed top three in all 79 races. Two horses did not finish and carry no placing — Nov 4 R7 #8 Stormin the Beach ("went wrong 5/16, vanned off") and Nov 4 R10 #8 Ragged Sky (pulled up); both count as starters and never as ITM.
• Cross-check against settled results: for the four dates with an Equibase-settled `results.json` on disk (Nov 4–7), all 40 chart winners and all 40 $2 win payoffs match exactly — 0 mismatches.
• Methodology note: beaten lengths behind the leader carry no negative sign in chart text, so first-call positions are decoded jointly per race rather than read horse-by-horse; the decode was unique at the first call in all 11 Saturday races. Off-the-turf and surface-switched races count on the surface they actually ran on, per the chart.