Who has already beaten whom — with the figure each horse ran that day — and who can still meet this winter. Every retired headliner is off the board. This is the record that remains.
Nitrogen is the standard. 2–0 over Fully Subscribed in two Grade 1s, consensus No. 1 at 8.95 — tied to 0.003 by Bacio — and pointed to the Pegasus against males.
The Puma over Further Ado — Tampa, Haskell, Pennsylvania Derby. Never by more than ¾ length where both were in the frame.
Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream: Skippylongstocking vs. Forged Steel. Then the Pegasus, Jan 30.
Quick-reference measures for all 17. Consensus is the average of four 10-to-1 measures: our figure, weight, published figure, NTRA opinion.
| # | Horse | Our fig avg / best | Weight | Best Beyer | Consensus |
|---|
* Leading Change 124 lb is the table’s only estimate — fitted from the field’s published-figure → weight line (n=11) because he has no lab line anywhere. Five horses have no sourced 2026 Beyer and share the lowest published tier — no number was filled in. Crude Velocity’s average rests on 2 lines only.
14 settled meetings in 2026, verified against official charts and race reports. Where the figure and the margin disagree, the chart is the record.
What it proved: Same figure, six lengths apart. The production figure credits the winner’s margin back into his own line — so identical numbers can hide a decisive beating.
What it proved: Napoleon Solo was exposed as not yet a two-turn graded horse in February — a verdict he spent the year revising, without ever beating Commandment.
What it proved: Meeting 1 of 3 in the year’s tightest series. Further Ado beat everyone else — and still lost the head-to-head.
What it proved: The closest finish between any two of the 17 all year. Commandment’s peak — he never won again. The Puma’s first hard proof he belonged at the top level.
What it proved: The year’s biggest form reversal. The two weakest figure résumés beat the two strongest. *Margins: 5½ / 8¼ per DRF; 5¼ / 7¾ per the Equibase table.
What it proved: The most one-sided meeting of the year. Nitrogen’s 113 is the best published figure by any horse still in training.
What it proved: Derby form held exactly. Golden Tempo completed a Derby–Belmont double over the same two horses — 2-for-2 against both.
What it proved: Wet-track caveat over the whole race — but the least-regarded of the four produced the group’s only other summer Grade 1 win.
What it proved: Fogg’s second straight Suburban, by daylight. †107 is used — three July reports agree; one October DRF article claims 114 for the same race, recorded as an uncorroborated outlier.
What it proved: Renegade turned the Belmont tables running the biggest number any of the Derby four ran all year. Series vs. Commandment closes 2–1 to Renegade.
What it proved: Six of the 17 in one race — the deepest meeting of the year — won by a horse in his third career start, with no figure in our system. Derby form did not survive the summer. ‡Baby Vino margin not verified.
What it proved: Meeting 3, same story. On figures they are the same horse (averages 102.7 vs. 102.0). In races, The Puma simply beats him — 3–0.
What it proved: Round 2 — margin collapsed from 12¾ to 2, answer did not change. Nitrogen is the only horse in the 17 to beat the same ranked rival in two Grade 1s in 2026.
What it proved: The final exam inverted the spring completely. The Puma finished in front of both classic winners. Napoleon Solo “didn’t handle the track” per connections — the one line to forgive.
Nitrogen over Fully Subscribed — Phipps by 12¾, Distaff by 2. Both Grade 1s.
The Puma over Further Ado — in finishing position across Tampa, Haskell and the Pennsylvania Derby.
Golden Tempo over Commandment & Renegade — against each, in the Derby and the Belmont.
Renegade over Commandment — Derby and Jim Dandy vs. the Belmont. Renegade vs. The Puma stands 1–1.
Leading Change over five at once — the Travers, in his third career start, with no lab figure.
Baby Vino’s Haskell — over Napoleon Solo, The Puma and Further Ado, on a sloppy track at 28-1.
The 17 mostly scatter. The meetings that remain are concentrated at Gulfstream. Confidence labels are carried exactly as sourced — nothing speculative is shown as confirmed.
GULFSTREAM · DEC 26, 2026 · 1¹⁄₁₆ MI DIRT · NEVER MET
| Horse | Fig avg / best | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Skippylongstocking | 102.8 / 104 | 132 lb |
| Forged Steel | 100.8 / 104 | 127 lb |
Stablemates, both Saffie Joseph Jr. Skippylongstocking has won the last two runnings of this exact race and won the Pegasus over this track in January (fig 103). Forged Steel has no Gulfstream line in the lab set; his 104s came at Tampa and Oaklawn.
The widest weight gap in any upcoming matchup (132 vs. 127). His race, his track, his exact Pegasus prep.
Forged Steel needs: a run back to his 104 best and the favorite needing the race. Both horses ended their seasons foot-sore — his with a hind-foot abscess, Forged Steel’s with a heel bruise — so soundness is the real uncertainty.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM the matchup occurs · HIGH in the pick if it does
FALL / WINTER · SINGLE MEMBERS OF THE 17
Clark S. (G2) — Churchill, Nov 27: Leading Change (reported likely) alone from the set. Still the fall’s most interesting single-horse race — the lab has no figure for him, and the Clark field will grade the Travers form.
Cigar Mile (G2) — Belmont Park, Dec 5: Napoleon Solo (reported likely) alone — unless Crude Velocity resurfaces here. He has no target found; watch item only.
Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) — Dec 12: Hughes is nominated only — 50 nominations, no trainer commitment. He and Emphatic cannot meet in 2026; separate classic trails.
Saudi Cup / Dubai World Cup: One horse each — Napoleon Solo to Saudi (Feb 6, confirmed long-range goal), Leading Change to Dubai (Mar 27, “one definite target”). A Dubai meeting between them is speculative — flagged, not counted.
GULFSTREAM · JAN 30, 2027 · 1⅛ MI DIRT · DATE MOVED BACK A WEEK FOR 2027 — STALE LISTINGS STILL SHOW JAN 23
| Horse — status | Fig avg / best | Weight | Best published | 1⅛-mi form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nitrogen — confirmed, conditional* | 102.7 / 104 | 131 | 113 | Phipps by 12¾; Distaff won; Whitney 2nd vs. males, fig 104 |
| The Puma — possible only | 102.7 / 107 | 129 | 103 | Florida Derby 2nd by a nose (104); Penn Derby won; career-best 107 at Gulfstream in January |
| Skippylongstocking — confirmed, finale | 102.8 / 104 | 132 | — none sourced | Won this race in 2026 (103) — but beaten 29¼ in the Monmouth Cup in July, sidelined since August |
| Forged Steel — confirmed | 100.8 / 104 | 127 | — none sourced | Goodwood (G1) winner at the trip (101); outclassed on averages |
Level on our averages (102.7 each) and level at the trip. The tiebreakers all point one way: weight 131 vs. 129, published 113 vs. a best of 103, and proven form against males — a 104 figure and a 105 Beyer finishing 2nd in the Whitney.
The Puma wins if he reproduces a peak — the 107 at Gulfstream in January or the Classic 2nd. His case is peak; hers is depth. Skippylongstocking wins only with his January-2026 Gulfstream self plus subpar runs from both principals.
*NITROGEN: “IF SHE TELLS US SHE’S READY” — CONNECTIONS, VIA PAULICK REPORT / TDN / DRF, NOV 1 · THE PUMA: “WOULD BE CONSIDERED” — NOT A MAPPED PLAN · IF THE PUMA DOESN’T COME, NITROGEN VS. THE JOSEPH PAIR IS ≈2 PTS ON TRIP FORM
| Horse | Next target | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nitrogen | Pegasus World Cup (G1), Gulfstream, vs. males | Jan 30, 2027 | Confirmed, conditional |
| Skippylongstocking | Harlan’s Holiday → Pegasus defense (finale, then stud) | Dec 26 → Jan 30 | Confirmed |
| Forged Steel | Harlan’s Holiday → Pegasus World Cup | Dec 26 → Jan 30 | Confirmed |
| The Puma | Pegasus World Cup — “would be considered” | Jan 30, 2027 | Possible only |
| Napoleon Solo | Cigar Mile → Saudi Cup (G1), Riyadh | Dec 5 → Feb 6, 2027 | Cigar likely · Saudi confirmed goal |
| Leading Change | Clark S. (G2) → Dubai World Cup (G1) | Nov 27 → Mar 27, 2027 | Clark likely · Dubai definite target |
| Golden Tempo | New Orleans Classic (G2), Fair Grounds | Mar 20, 2027 | Reported likely |
| Bacio | Shakertown (G2) → King Charles III (G1), Royal Ascot | Apr 2, 2027 | Confirmed |
| Hughes | Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) | Dec 12, 2026 | Nominated only |
| Fully Subscribed | La Troienne (G1), Churchill — 5yo opener | May 2027 | Reported likely |
| Further Ado | No target found — freshening likely rules out the Pegasus; 2027 BC is the stated goal | — | No target found |
| Phileas Fogg | No target found — 2 months off from Oct 22 (foot), back ~late Dec, 2027 campaign | — | No target found |
| Commandment | No target found — training setback late Aug; out until late spring 2027 | — | No target found |
| Renegade | No target found — “no immediate plans” after the Travers; runs in 2027 if healthy | — | No target found |
| Crude Velocity | No target found — last report Jul 8: freshened at Churchill; nothing since | — | No target found |
| Baby Vino | No target found — nothing after the Travers (7th) | — | No target found |
| Emphatic | No target found — “everything’s on the table”; Ashland talk is reporter-raised, speculative | — | No target found · Open question |
Round 3 of Nitrogen vs. Fully Subscribed does not happen on current plans: Nitrogen winters toward the Pegasus while Fully Subscribed is pointed at a May return at Churchill.
The year’s real story was the crop reshuffling itself — Derby form inverted by autumn, a Travers won by a horse with no figure, and one rivalry that never changed its answer. This winter, don’t chase scattered names. Circle two Gulfstream dates: Dec 26 for the stablemate clash, and Jan 30 for the Pegasus gate that could hold the top two weights among active horses — Skippylongstocking 132, Nitrogen 131 — plus the defending champion in his finale and the Classic runner-up.
Reference line, not ranked: T O Elvis (Japan-trained) measures higher than every U.S. sprinter — our average 105.5, best 106, weight 132 lb, Beyer 112 in the BC Sprint — but he fails the U.S.-based rule and sits outside the 17. Turf route is vacant at the top: its 2026 U.S. leaders retired or were sold to Japan.
Screenshot-friendly: the board, any single meeting, and each CAN card stand alone as a post.